As a reminder, let us not forget The Three Conjectures written by Wretchard back in 2003:
Conjecture 1: Terrorism has lowered the nuclear threshold.
Summary: The nuclear threshold — the point in which we attack (or counter-attack) with nuclear weapons — is crossed when an enemy has both the capability and the intent to use nuclear weapons against us. During the Cold War, the Soviets obviously had the capability to destroy America, but not the intent (in the face of certain retaliation). September 11 has shown that the Islamists have the intent, but they don’t yet have the capability. This has lowered the nuclear threshold, since if the Islamists get their hands on nuclear weapons, they fully intend to use them against us, and we’ll be forced to respond.
Conjecture 2: Obtaining WMDs will destroy Islam
Summary: As long as their capability remained, the Islamists would continue to attack America, even in the face of retaliation. Further, even if we wanted to negotiate a peace or surrender, there is no central Islamic authority we could even talk to. Such a scenario would eventually require us to annihilate the entire Muslim world. Wretchard: “The so-called strengths of Islamic terrorism: fanatical intent; lack of a centralized leadership; absence of a final authority and cellular structure guarantee uncontrollable escalation once the nuclear threshold is crossed.” And even if every non-Muslim were dead, they would then turn on each other with their new-found weaponry.
Conjecture 3: The War on Terror is the ‘Golden Hour’ — the final chance
Summary: The fate of the Muslim world very much depends on destroying the Islamists before they achieve nuclear capability. It is ironic that an American victory in the Global War on Terror is the best hope the Muslim world has.
Then there’s the the Postscript to the Three Conjectures, and the follow-on Fourth Conjecture. And of course there’s Den Beste’s response and disagreement with Conjecture 2. Wretchard then responds to Den Beste.
Tags: barbarians, Islam, war, WMD